Project Background & Rationale

1.1. The Climate Threat to Rwandan Coffee:

In 2015, the global community committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure prosperity for all. These 17 interconnected goals emphasize economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection, with SDG 13 (Climate Action) being particularly crucial for the success of all others. Despite this global commitment, climate change remains a persistent and escalating threat, demanding urgent attention.

Climate change profoundly impacts all human activities and the functioning of living systems. While all living organisms possess some natural adaptive capacity, this varies significantly, and many face adaptation failure. Plants, in particular, exhibit a low inherent capacity to adapt to rapid climatic shifts, a reality that severely affects coffee cultivation worldwide. Disruptions in critical climatic variables like temperature and rainfall have been shown to impair coffee productivity and quality across different regions. For instance, Arabica coffee thrives within specific ranges: altitudes of 1000m to 2000m, optimal temperatures between 15°C and 24°C, and annual precipitation of 1500mm to 2000mm.

In Rwanda, where coffee is a vital source of income for numerous families and a significant contributor to the national economy, the impacts of climate change are undeniable. Erratic rainfall patterns, including dry spells during critical growing seasons, disrupt flowering and cherry development. Conversely, intense rainfall and hail events lead to floods, soil erosion, and direct crop damage, severely affecting coffee quality and productivity.

Addressing these challenges necessitates the urgent implementation of comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies within the global coffee sector. While practices such as integrating shade trees and implementing robust soil and water conservation measures offer partial solutions, a more holistic approach is vital.

A significant challenge in Rwanda is that approximately 25% of existing coffee trees are over 30 years old, and current varieties are largely susceptible to major pests and diseases. This highlights the critical need for rejuvenating plantations and introducing new, resilient coffee varieties. The cultivation of new coffee varieties capable of withstanding the challenges of changing weather patterns, increased temperatures, and new disease/insect prevalence, coupled with optimal use of existing adaptation strategies, is highly imperative for Rwanda’s coffee sector.

Promising evidence suggests that F1 Arabica coffee hybrids, a new class of coffee varieties, possess enhanced resilience to climate change and offer higher productivity compared to standard Arabica coffee, thereby holding significant potential to improve coffee farmers’ livelihoods. However, despite these encouraging findings, the testing and cultivation of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids have been limited to a few countries globally, with no documented studies in Rwanda. This critical gap underscores the necessity and justification for the proposed project.

1.2. The Opportunity: Innovative Adaptation & Sustainable Growth: Global evidence suggests that new coffee varieties, like Arabica F1 hybrids, combined with optimal good agricultural practices (GAPs), offer promising solutions for climate adaptation, higher productivity, and improved quality. However, these strategies remain largely untested in Rwanda. This project aims to fill that knowledge gap.

1.3. Project Vision: To empower Rwandan coffee farmers with scientifically proven, sustainable climate adaptation strategies, ensuring the long-term viability, productivity, and premium quality of Rwandan coffee in the face of a changing climate.

1.4. Project Objectives: The overall objective is to compare the merits and productivity of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids against standard Arabica coffee, and to determine the effectiveness and influence of good agricultural practices (GAPs) as climate adaptation strategies on both varieties’ productivity and quality.

• Specific Objectives:
  1. To compare the merits (disease resistance, pest attack prevalence, early production, climate resilience, bean size, stable production, cupping score) of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids against standard Arabica coffee.
  2. To compare the productivity (per tree and total annual yield) of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids against standard Arabica coffee.
  3. To determine if good agricultural practices serve as effective climate adaptation strategies in the coffee sector, and how they influence productivity and quality for both Arabica F1 hybrids and standard Arabica coffee.

II. Methodology: A Controlled Pilot Experiment

2.1. Study Design: This will be a five-year pilot experimental study utilizing a two-by-two factorial design, conducted in Nyamasheke district.

2.2. Study Groups & Blinding:

• Total Seedlings: 1,000 coffee seedlings.
• Experimental Group (1): 500 seedlings (mix of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids and standard Arabica).
• Control Groups (2): Each composed of 250 seedlings (mix of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids and standard Arabica).
• All seedlings will be prepared in a single nursery and planted under identical conditions.
• Seedlings will be assigned blind identification marks (Blue for F1 hybrids, Green for Standard Arabica). Only principal investigators will know the group identifiers to prevent bias.
• All project activities, including planting, production, processing, quality testing, and selling, will be conducted using randomization and a single-blind approach (direct implementers will not know which group is which).
• Good agricultural practices and fertilizer application will be consistently applied across all groups.

2.3. Outcome Measures:

• Merits: Resistance to diseases/pests, prevalence of attack, early production, climate resistance, bean size, quality, stable seasonal production, and cupping score.
• Productivity: Productivity per coffee tree and total annual quantities produced per group.
• Data Analysis: Data will be analyzed using SPSS version 28.

2.4. Ethical Considerations: The study will be registered with the Rwanda Agricultural Board. Ethical clearance will be obtained from an institutional review board and ethics committee if required.

III. Expected Outcomes & Significance

3.1. Evidence-Based Adaptation: This pilot project will provide crucial scientific evidence on the effectiveness of Arabica F1 coffee hybrids and specific good agricultural practices as climate adaptation strategies in the Rwandan context.

3.2. Informing Policy & Practice: The findings will equip Rwandan coffee companies, policymakers (e.g., MINAGRI), and other stakeholders with informed insights to develop national guidelines and implement targeted intervention programs to enhance climate resilience in the coffee sector.

3.3. Farmer Empowerment & Livelihood Improvement: By identifying optimal strategies for higher productivity and quality, the project aims to empower coffee farmers, contributing to improved livelihoods, poverty reduction, and their active participation in Rwanda’s economic growth and environmental protection efforts.

3.4. Contribution to SDGs & Vision 2050: This research aligns directly with Rwanda’s sustainable development goals and Vision 2050, demonstrating Cyesha Coffee Ltd.’s commitment to generating new knowledge and practical approaches for climate adaptation, fostering shared appreciation for sustainable practices, and collaborating with partners across sectors.

IV. Project Timeline

Duration: 5 years (following seedling planting).

V. Project Team (Cyesha Coffee Ltd. & Partners)

Principal Investigators (blinded to group identities).

Field Agronomists & Technicians.

Data Analysts.

Community Engagement Specialists.